Hurricane Spaghetti?
Spaghetti models are very popular with storm watchers. People like to see all the possible anticipated paths the storm might take.
What is a spaghetti model?
Spaghetti models are the various computer models showing a tropical storms various possible paths. They are nicknamed "Spaghetti Models" because when all the paths and models are show in one plot, they look a bunch of spaghetti. Since models use so many variables and weight them differently, they can vary widely in their predictions.
They may be helpful, as they show how the cone of probability we are used to seeing, is derived. When models vary extremely, the cone is larger. When the models start to come together and predict the same path, the cone narrows.
.The closer a storm gets to a destination, the more accurate the models are to actual outcomes. So don't let the "spaghetti" worry you. The outliers, or the stray strands, are the least likely to occur. But don't discount them either. The best way to approach the weather and storms is wait and see. Forecasts will give you plenty of time to make plans or change plans, if needed.
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